Januar 2023 -
Ausgewählte Statements
„Wir glauben, dass die Kerninflation in diesem Monat ihren Höhepunkt erreicht hat. Aber es gibt keinen Grund zum Jubeln, denn die kommenden Werte dürften sehr hoch bleiben und die Verlangsamung sich hinziehen.“
„Unsere Projektionen für die kommenden Monate sind bis März stabil bei 4,9 bis fünf Prozent und werden sich dann sehr langsam abschwächen – wir rechnen mit einer Kerninflation von 2,7 Prozent im vierten Quartal 2023.“
„Die Energiepreise sind volatil, und das Risiko eines Rückschlags ist nach wie vor eher groß.“
„Bei den Gütern gibt es immer noch einen anhaltenden Preisdruck, der zumeist auf vergangene Energieerhöhungen oder kommende Aufholprozesse zurückzuführen ist. Die Preise für Nahrungsmittel sind erneut gestiegen, angetrieben durch einen erheblichen Anstieg bei verarbeiteten Nahrungsmitteln.“
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Eurozone Inflation Review: Robust core gives (further) ammunition for an hawkish ECB
- Euro area headline inflation was weaker than our below consensus forecast reaching 9.2% y/y in December (AXA IM: 9.4%; consensus: 9.7%). The decline was mainly driven by big one-off in Germany (energy related) and lower wholesale energy prices.
- Core inflation increased by 0.2 percentage point to 5.2% y/y (AXA IM: 5.1%, consensus: 5%).
- We believe core inflation has reached the peak this month but there are no reasons to celebrate it as coming prints should remain very elevated, and deceleration protracted.
- Today’s data concur with ECB’s very hawkish turn at December meeting, confirming a “pivot” in the short-term is unlikely. We expect ECB to hike its deposit rate to (at least) 3.25% in May.
EMU headline inflation decelerated to 9.2% y/y in December, weaker than our below consensus forecast (AXA IM: 9.4%; consensus: 9.7%), driven down by receded wholesale energy prices and big one off in Germany with the reimbursement of December gas bill. But key message for us and the ECB is elsewhere as core inflation increased to 5.2% y/y (AXA IM: 5.1%, consensus: 5.0%). Service prices have accelerated, reaching 4.4% y/y (+0.2pp). Non-energy industrial goods surprised to the upside, accelerating to 6.4% (+0.3pp). Food inflation remains exceptionally high.
Lower headline driven by energy could be positively interpreted as this should generate lower second round effect. But energy prices are volatile, and risk of rebound remains tilted to the upside. In that context, rising core is not good news. We believe we have reached the peak for core but our projections for coming months are very sticky until March [4.9-5%] and decelerate at a very gentle pace – we project core inflation at 2.7% in Q4 2023 with risks on the upside. This definitely concurs with ECB’s very hawkish turn at the December meeting confirming a “pivot” in the short-term is unlikely. We expect ECB to hike its deposit rate to (at least) 3.25% in May.
Energy component was the main driver of the decline (25.7% y/y, -9.2pp). Preliminary details showed that approximately half of it comes from the reimbursement of December gas bill while lower wholesale energy prices contributed for the rest. Looking forward, we believe energy prices are to remain tilted to the upside (China reopening, gas and electricity prices remain exposed to weather) while some fiscal support such as rebates for oil at the pump in France and Spain have ended in December. France energy bills will also increase this year after being protected by different caps in 2022. By contrast, price cap in Germany should provide some relief (from January), even if the details are still unclear. Corresponding law still needs to be passed in Parliament, but we already know it should be retroactive, starting from January.
Core inflation remains very dynamic, increasing by 5.2% y/y (+0.2pp), boosted by services (4.4% y/y; +0.2pp) and more surprisingly by NEIG (6.4 % y/y; +0.3pp). While details are missing, we suspect demand for services such as leisure, transport, hotels have been dynamic. We believe it will persist over H1 2023. For goods, there is still “pressure in the pipeline”, mostly from past energy increases or coming catch up (i.e in France). But we believe demand for goods should ease. So if energy prices do not skyrocket again and bottlenecks continue to soften, producers may reflect lower inputs cost into NEIG prices. This could start from February-March.
Food prices has increased again (13.8% y/y; +0.2pp), driven by substantial rise in processed food while unprocessed food decelerated for the second month in a row. We continue to pencil in other rises for the beginning of this year, peaking at 15% y/y in January and then remaining above 10% until Q3 2023.