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Pressemitteilung

MFS: Week in Review - KW 24

© MFS

18.06.2021 - Global equities pulled back from near-record highs this week as the US Federal Reserve surprised markets by forecasting earlier-than-expected rate hikes and indicated it will discuss tapering asset purchases in coming meetings. The yield on the US 10-year note is little changed from a week ago at 1.48% after erasing a spike higher after the Fed meeting, though yields on the longer end fell sharply, flattening the curve. The price of a barrel of West Texas Intermediate Crude oil slipped $0.60 from last Friday's level but traded well below levels reached earlier in the week as crude broke above $73 for the first time since 2018. Volatility, as measured by the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), rose to 19.2 from 15.6 a week ago.

MACRO NEWS

Fed accelerates rate hike timeline

After months of insisting that US inflationary pressures are the mainly result of reopening bottlenecks and therefore transitory, the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee this week surprised markets by forecasting that it will hike rates twice in 2023 after previously predicting no hikes until 2024. In addition, policymakers agreed to discuss in coming meetings the tapering of their asset purchases, a prerequisite for any future rate hikes. The Fed also made two technical rate adjustments, raising the rate on reverse repurchase agreements by five basis points to 0.05% and the rate it pays on excess reserves by 0.05% to 0.1% to better mop up excess liquidity in short-term money markets.

Markets adjust as Fed rethinks position on inflation

The Fed's more hawkish tone Wednesday set off a number of notable market moves. The reflation trade that had favored value stocks and commodities and undermined the dollar came under immediate pressure following the shift. Commodities had been giving ground in advance of the meeting, but the Fed helped accelerate a sizable position unwind. Markets had anticipated that the Fed's new average inflation target framework would allow price pressures to run hot for longer before the central bank would react, but this week's news changed that calculation. Among the most significant occurrences this week was the sharp decline in long-term Treasury yields, with the 30-year bond dropping 16 basis points in yield on Thursday. Growth stocks have outperformed value stocks since the Fed meeting on the assumption that tighter policy will keep a lid on price hikes.

Dueling US infrastructure plans on separate tracks

US Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) triggered the reconciliation process this week, opening the door to the passage of an infrastructure package with a bare majority of votes in the upper chamber. Schumer also plans to bring an alternative, scaled-down, bipartisan package to the Senate floor under regular order, meaning its passage would require 60 votes. The move comes after a bipartisan group of 10 senators tentatively agreed to back this $974 billion, five-year proposal, which addresses roads, bridges and broadband but not progressive priorities such as climate change and childcare. With a few swing state Democrats reluctant to sign onto the large package, there is no easy path to its passage. Talks continue on the smaller bill, though its passage is not assured either.

Week of summits draws to close

It was a busy week of summitry in Europe as leaders of the G7 nations met in England over the weekend and issued a communique that laid out support for continued fiscal stimulus and a global minimum corporate tax rate of at least 15%. The leaders also outlined an infrastructure program to counter China's Belt and Road Initiative. The group disagreed on how to approach relations with China generally, with European leaders supporting a more conciliatory approach than that of the United States. A NATO summit followed the G7, with US President Joe Biden strongly reiterating the US commitment to the transatlantic defense alliance. President Biden wound up his European trip by meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Geneva. Biden warned Putin that the US could retaliate against Russia if ransomware attacks continue to be launched from its soil.

QUICK HITS

Biden signed a bill on Thursday making Juneteenth a federal holiday in the US, the first new holiday since Martin Luther King Jr. Day was created in 1983.

The Reserve Bank of Australia signaled this week that it would be premature to end its bond buying program now. The bank discussed options for slowing the pace of purchases or reviewing their pace more frequently based on the flow of economic data. A decision on which option will be adopted is expected in July. Similarly, the European Central Bank's Christine Lagarde said it is too early to discuss ending emergency support measures.

England will delay lifting its remaining coronavirus restrictions by four weeks amid a rise in cases linked to the delta variant.

Biden named Lina Tam, a prominent critic of big tech, as chair of the US Federal Trade Commission. Tam has argued in favor of blocking mergers, preventing companies from using their dominance in one market to gain advantages in others and potentially breaking up some of the largest companies.

The Wall Street Journal estimates that US nonfinancial corporations issued $1.7 trillion of debt last year. Total debt among nonfinancial corporates reached $11.2 trillion, roughly half the size of the US economy. Record low interest rates engineered by the Fed in response to the pandemic, helped companies "term out" their borrowings, but some investors fear the highly leveraged companies could be vulnerable in the next economic downturn.

The United States and the European Union reached agreement on ending a 17-year battle over state subsidies for Boeing and Airbus.

The UK and Australia announced a free trade agreement between the two nations, the first since the UK quit the European Union.

US May retail sales fell 1.3% but April sales were revised higher from flat to +0.9%. Supply chain disruptions remain evident. Core retail sales are running about 10% higher than the prepandemic trend.

Chinese industrial production and retail sales rose less than expected in May as domestic demand proved less robust than was hoped.

Japanese exports rose at their fastest pace in over 40 years in May, growing nearly 50% from the depressed levels during the depths of the pandemic a year ago.

UK CPI rose 2.1% in May, topping the Bank of England's target. As in the US, central bankers expect the jump in price levels to be transitory, driven by reopening bottlenecks and pent-up demand.

Rents for single family homes in the US rose 5.3% year over year in April, the largest increase in 15 years, according to CoreLogic.

A US district court judge in Louisiana ruled that the Biden administration does not have the authority to stop the leasing of federal lands for oil and gas exploration without congressional approval.


Hinweise:

The information included above as well as individual companies and/or securities mentioned should not be construed as investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell or an indication of trading intent on behalf of any MFS product.

Securities discussed may or may not be holdings in any of the MFS funds. For a complete list of holdings for any MFS portfolio, please see the most recent annual, semiannual or quarterly report. Full holdings are also available on the individual Fund Summary tab in the Products section of mfs.com.

The views expressed in this article are those of MFS, and are subject to change at any time. No forecasts can be guaranteed.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Sources: MFS research, Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, Reuters, Bloomberg News, FactSet Research, CNBC.com.

This content is directed at investment professionals only.

 

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