16.04.2021 - As of noon on Friday, global equities were trading in record territory as the US economy showed continued signs of recovery and earnings reports largely beat expectations. Despite very strong data this week, the yield on the benchmark US 10-year Treasury note declined 13 basis points to 1.57% amid reports of renewed overseas buying, particularly from Asia. The price of a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil rallied about $4 to $63.35 from a week ago while volatility, as measured by the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), held steady at 16.5.
MACRO NEWS
US economy shifted into a higher gear in March
After being disrupted by rough winter weather in February, economic activity in the United States gathered pace in March as retail sales surged 9.8%, weekly jobless claims fell below 600,000 for the first time since the onset of the pandemic and regional US Federal Reserve surveys from New York and Philadelphia showed strong upticks. Inflation ticked higher in March too, with the Consumer Price Index rising 2.6% at the headline level and 1.6% stripping out food and energy. Bottlenecks in the production cycle continue while comparisons with very weak year-ago data will feed through to inflation readings in the coming months. The Fed has said it will look through these so-called base effects.
US regulators cool SPAC frenzy
Growing regulatory scrutiny on special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs) has resulted in a sharp slowdown in the registration of these vehicles in recent weeks. Month-to-date, only 12 new SPACs have filed to go public, down from an average of five a day in the first quarter. Regulators have begun focusing on optimistic revenue projections used by startups acquired by SPACs. This week, the US Securities and Exchange Commission said it may also require that warrants issued to early investors be classified as liabilities rather than equity, forcing SPACs to restate their financial results. Also this week, the US Senate confirmed Washington and Wall Street veteran Gary Gensler as SEC chair.
Europe struggles amid surge in COVID-19 cases
In Europe, the World Health Organization projects that nearly 9,600 people an hour are testing positive for COVID-19 and estimates that over 1,000,000 Europeans have succumbed to the virus so far. While the region's vaccine rollout has been problematic, the pace of vaccinations has improved in many countries. With hospitals close to capacity in many countries, lockdowns remain widespread. As a result, economic growth is expected to rebound more slowly in Europe than in the United States.
Investors all bulled up
Several measures of investor sentiment are flashing warnings of irrational exuberance as equity markets extend their rallies. The latest Bank of America Global Fund Managers' Survey shows that equity allocations have reached a 10-year high. The survey also showcased a potential taper tantrum as the single largest risk facing investors in the months ahead. Also near a cycle peak is the bullish reading from Investors Intelligence, at 63.4%.
China reports eye-popping Q1 growth
Gross domestic product in China grew 18.3% in the first quarter of 2021 compared with the same quarter a year ago, when the country was in the throes of its coronavirus lockdown. While the numbers appear robust on the surface, analysts expect that China's fastest period of recovery is behind it and that growth will quickly moderate toward a 6% annual rate in the quarters ahead. Economists also note that seasonal adjustment data has been thrown out of whack by coronavirus restrictions, which limited the traditional movement of migrant workers to their hometowns over the Lunar New Year period while keeping historically shuttered factories in operation over the holiday.
QUICK HITS
The International Monetary Fund this week urged officials in the eurozone to increase government spending by an additional 3% of GDP to mitigate the economic impact of the pandemic.
According to a CNBC poll, US President Joe Biden's proposed infrastructure program is proving much less popular with the public than the recently passed coronavirus recovery plan. Thirty-six percent support infrastructure spending while 33% oppose. In contrast, about twice as many favor the recently-passed American Recovery Plan than oppose it.
European new car registrations surged 63% in March compared with year-ago levels, which came during the early days of the pandemic.
Italy forecasts that its debt/GDP ratio will hit an all-time high near 160% this year and that growth will rebound less strongly than previously forecast, by about 4.5% in 2021. The country's deficit will tally around 11.8% of GDP, the government projects.
Europe's STOXX 600 Index joined the S&P 500 Index in record territory late this week.
This week, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said the eurozone economy will need both monetary and fiscal support well into the recovery.
Reuters reports that Chinese regulators have asked banks not to withhold loans to embattled asset management firm China Huarong Asset Management Co as part of support measures to stabilize its cash flow and reduce the risk of market contagion. The manager of distressed assets has drawn scrutiny in recent weeks from credit rating agencies and has delayed releasing earnings. China's Ministry of Finance is the firm's largest shareholder.
The British economy expanded 0.4% in February after contracting in January. The economy remains 7.8% smaller than it was before the pandemic hit in February 2020.
The US announced it will withdraw all military forces from Afghanistan by the 20th anniversary of the 9/11 terrorist attacks.
EARNINGS NEWS
With about 9% of the constituents of the S&P 500 Index having reported for Q1 2021, blended earnings per share (which combines reported data with estimates for those that have yet to report) shows that earnings growth is running at 30.1% while sales rose 6.8% compared with the same quarter a year ago, when the effects of the pandemic were first being felt, according to data from FactSet Research. About 81% of companies are beating analysts' estimates this quarter, compared with the typical 75%.
Hinweise:
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Sources: MFS research, Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, Reuters, Bloomberg News, FactSet Research, CNBC.com.
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