09.03.2021 -We believe that we have found ample evidence to support our risk-on, procyclical bias and optimism on the global economic recovery.
Our preferred risk-on, procyclical stance is being well rewarded in financial markets so far this year. Along the way, it’s become a more widely shared consensus – and perhaps crowded – view. Complacency does not beget consistent success, and so the popularity of the early-cycle playbook demands that we reevaluate whether these positions are fully valued or can continue to outperform.
As multi-asset investors, we scrutinize the investable universe for signals that confirm or challenge our base case. In examining three important market-based curves and another relating to public health outcomes, we believe that we have found ample evidence to support our risk-on, procyclical bias and optimism on the global economic recovery. We will monitor the evolution of these curves to determine if and when the macroeconomic sands are shifting, and are prepared to adjust our positioning accordingly ...