16.02.2021 - In coming months, the market may confuse the Federal Reserve’s increasing bullishness on the US economic outlook with hawkishness on rate expectations.
The approaching season of spring holds great promise as the time when the developed world will begin to collectively exhale. Flash forward two months, and our base case is that the picture looks something like this: Vaccinations have accelerated further and are poised to continue to do so. Regional and local authorities will be mapping out plans for reopening. Stateside, additional fiscal stimulus will have further bolstered excess savings, improving the outlook for pent-up consumer demand. Readings of inflation will be boosted by base effects ...