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Pressemitteilung

MFS: Markets Thankful for Transition and Remission

© MFS

27.11.2020 - As of noon on Friday, global equities broadly advanced to record highs on the US Thanksgiving week, following continued positive news on COVID-19 vaccines and the uplifting spotlight of a US presidential transition. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note rose two basis points from a week ago to 0.86% while the price of a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil surged to $45.28 from $41.75. Volatility, as measured by the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), fell to 20.8 from 22.8 last Friday.

MACRO NEWS

Transition moving forward after weeks of delay

Perhaps the biggest news of the week surrounded the White House, specifically focused on the pending US presidential transition. On Monday, General Services Administration Chief Emily Murphy told President-elect Joe Biden that the Trump administration is making $7 million in federal funding available for his transition into office after withholding her decision for weeks. President-elect Joe Biden announced his intended nominees for top cabinet and national security positions in advance of his scheduled 20 January 2021 inauguration. The markets cheered the planned nomination of former US Fed Chair Janet Yellen as Treasury secretary, as she is expected to focus on fixing the US economy and not pursuing a new regulatory regime for banks that some on Wall Street feared. Other potential appointments include Antony Blinken as secretary of State, Jake Sullivan as national security advisor, Linda Thomas-Greenfield as the United Nations Ambassador, Alejandro Mayorkas to lead the Department of Homeland Security, Avril Haines as the director of National Intelligence and John Kerry as special presidential envoy for climate, placing the post within the National Security Council (NSC), the first time a high-level envoy for climate has been formally part of the NSC. 

Vaccine push continues to be strong

AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford said their coronavirus vaccine was up to 90% effective, becoming the third inoculation this month with effective trial data. Interim analysis showed its vaccine has an average efficacy of 70%. One dosing regimen showed effectiveness of 90%, while the other demonstrated 62% efficacy. Regeneron said that the company will provide the US 300,000 doses of its newly authorized coronavirus treatment by early January, and it has 80,000 doses ready to deploy immediately.

COVID-19 spread and developments

According to Johns Hopkins University, there have been 59 million global coronavirus cases, at least 1.4 million deaths, 12 million US cases and more than 255,000 US deaths. US airport screenings climbed to an eight-month high over the weekend ahead of Thanksgiving, despite warnings from federal health officials to avoid travel for the holiday. The US continues to notch record Covid-19 infections, with the national seven-day average of daily new cases hitting 170,855. More than 82,100 people are currently hospitalized with COVID-19 across the country, more than at any point during the pandemic. Texas is preparing to start administering the first COVID-19 immunization shots in less than three weeks. New York Governor Andrew Cuomo said the state will reopen a field hospital on Staten Island following an influx of Covid-19 patients over the last three weeks. Doctors believe that the CDC should warn people the side effects from COVID-19 vaccine shots won’t be "a walk in the park." Russia said that it will make its vaccine cheaper than its global rivals and aims to produce 1 billion doses in 2021. Eli Lilly and Co. signed an agreement with the Canadian government to supply its antibody drug, bamlanivimab, to treat COVID-19 patients.

UK sets wheels in motion post lockdown|

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson is expected to announce that a nationwide lockdown in England will be lifted next week. The government plans to return to a three-tiered system of restrictions, with geographic areas facing different measures, depending on the severity of their outbreaks. Though it's likely that a much-criticized 10 p.m. curfew on bars and restaurants will be altered, the tiers are likely to include tighter restrictions as more communities are expected to be placed in the two highest virus alert categories. In addition, travelers arriving in the UK will be able to cut their self-isolation period from 14 to five days starting next month if they test negative for the coronavirus. British retail sales fell by the most since June during this month’s lockdown across the bulk of the country, though the decline was less than most economists feared as online sales took up some of the slack. 

G-20 summit producing united messaging 

Leaders of the world’s 20 biggest economies outlined plans to accelerate an equitable and sustainable recovery at its G-20 summit in Saudi Arabia. The leaders pledged to spare no effort to ensure equitable access to coronavirus vaccines worldwide. The G-20 also pledged to mobilize financial resources to support the research, development, manufacturing and distribution of safe and effective COVID-19 diagnostics, therapeutics and vaccines. 

Black Friday deals move from doorbusters to couchbusters|

Many retailers in the US are making it easier for shoppers to get the best holiday deals from their couch, instead of making them come into crowded stores. Many of the big box stores remained closed on Thanksgiving, swapping the pre-COVID-19 model for a sales flow that keeps on giving leading up to December holidays. Nearly every retailer this year has switched their holiday sales approach to motivate a very different kind of behavior: staggered shopping, curbside pickup and appropriate distancing if customers choose to shop at stores.

QUICK HITS

JPMorgan raised its odds of a Brexit trade deal to 80%, up from 66%, as negotiators from Britain and the European Union try to complete an accord before the end of the year. The European Union and Britain said on Friday there were still substantial differences over the trade deal.

The number of Americans filing first-time claims for jobless benefits increased further last week, suggesting that an explosion in new COVID-19 infections and business restrictions were boosting layoffs and undermining the US labor market recovery.

Zambia opted out of a $42.5 million eurobond repayment last week, becoming the first African nation to default on its debt in the COVID-19 era. Fitch Ratings downgraded Zambia from CC to Restricted Default and S&P Global Ratings had already reduced its equivalent rating to Selective Default.

Economic activity in the eurozone shrank to a six-month low in November after governments introduced new lockdowns and social restrictions to contain further spreading of the coronavirus.

According to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, US home prices saw its biggest spike in six years producing the largest annual gain since September 2014. Prices are now nearly 23% higher than their last peak in 2006.

Irish retail sales volumes fell in October for the first time since April as COVID-19 curbs were tightened. However, a modest 0.7% drop meant sales were still 8.1% higher than the same period a year ago, Central Statistics Office data showed.

The Russell 2000 Index is on track for its best month ever as vaccine hopes fuel a small-stock boom. The index hit another intraday record high this week and has surged 20% in November, which puts it on pace for its best monthly performance since its inception in 1984.

According to an online survey by YouGov, about a third of US millennials (ages 24-39) say they’ve been rejected when applying for credit cards, mortgages, car loans and other financial products this year because of their credit score. 

US business activity expanded at the fastest rate in more than five years in November led by the quickest pickup in manufacturing since September 2014, an IHS Markit survey revealed.

European Council President Charles Michel congratulated President-elect Joe Biden on his election and invited him to rebuild “a strong trans-Atlantic alliance” and attend a meeting with the bloc’s 27 national leaders next year.

British telecom companies may be fined 10% of revenues for using Huawei gear under a new law.

Canada will provide a full update on federal spending on 30 November, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland announced, as the government pledged to support people and businesses through a surging second wave of COVID-19.

GM is withdrawing from litigation led by the Trump administration against California over the state being allowed to set its own fuel economy and emissions regulations. President-elect Joe Biden is widely expected to allow California the right to set its own standards.

Brazil's balance of payments position with the rest of the world improved in October as a $1.5 billion current account surplus helped shrink the 12-month accumulated deficit to its smallest level in more than two years. The country's debt has ballooned to unprecedented levels, and the government faces a $112 billion refinancing cliff early next year, with April's funding needs the highest ever for a single month.

Gold slid to a four-month low during the week as optimism over the development of COVID-19 vaccines drove investors to riskier assets.

Copper prices hit an almost 30-month high with fresh buying triggered by optimism about COVID-19 vaccines, expectations of robust demand in top consumer China and a weaker dollar.

Japanese shares hit a 29-year high as progress in developing an inexpensive coronavirus vaccine boosted hopes of a swift recovery, while a formal transition approval for US President-elect Joe Biden also lifted sentiment.

The European Central Bank warned that bank profits should remain weak in 2021 as interest rates are expected to remain low and the ECB continues with its ultra-loose monetary policy.

The S&P energy sector is on pace for its best month ever after rallying nearly 40% in November.

Late in the week, Bitcoin plunged $3,000 in less than 24 hours after approaching highs of $20,000 last seen at the end of 2017. The cryptocurrency is up more than 150% in 2020.

Stay focused and diversified In any market environment, we strongly believe that investors should stay diversified across a variety of asset classes. By working closely with your investment professional, you can help ensure that your portfolio is properly diversified and that your financial plan supports your long-term goals, time horizon and tolerance for risk. Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against loss.


Hinweise:

The information included above as well as individual companies and/or securities mentioned should not be construed as investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell or an indication of trading intent on behalf of any MFS product.

Securities discussed may or may not be holdings in any of the MFS funds. For a complete list of holdings for any MFS portfolio, please see the most recent annual, semiannual or quarterly report. Full holdings are also available on the individual Fund Summary tab in the Products section of mfs.com.

The views expressed in this article are those of MFS, and are subject to change at any time. No forecasts can be guaranteed.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Sources: MFS research, Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, Reuters, Bloomberg News, FactSet Research, CNBC.com.

This content is directed at investment professionals only.

 

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